Does this skill ignore qualitative feedback?

No. While it prioritizes base rate data, it encourages a balanced approach where qualitative anecdotes are recognized as potential early signals but are weighed against broader statistical context.

How does this skill improve software development workflows?

It helps teams prioritize development tasks like bug fixes and features based on actual usage statistics rather than the 'vividness' of recent user complaints or high-impact edge cases.

When should I use the Availability Heuristic thinking pattern?

Apply this pattern when you feel disproportionately worried about a rare threat, when media coverage is shaping your perception of frequency, or when you need to justify an estimate with hard data.

What is the availability heuristic?

The availability heuristic is a cognitive shortcut where people judge the probability or frequency of events based on how easily examples come to mind, often leading to systematic bias toward recent or dramatic events.

Availability Heuristic Thinking Pattern

Name: Availability Heuristic Thinking Pattern
Author: lev-os

bylev-os

0•

Data Science & ML

Mitigates cognitive bias in decision-making by prioritizing statistical base rates over vivid, anecdotal evidence.

The Availability Heuristic skill helps Claude and its users overcome the common cognitive bias of overestimating the frequency of dramatic or recent events while underestimating common but mundane occurrences. By implementing a systematic process to recognize vividness bias, seek historical data, and adjust for recency, this skill ensures more objective risk assessment, resource allocation, and problem prioritization. It is particularly useful for product managers, developers, and analysts who need to move beyond 'the loudest voice in the room' toward data-driven conclusions.

Key Features

01Generates statistical counter-examples to challenge subjective perceptions

02Promotes the discovery and use of base rate data over personal anecdotes

03Provides a structured 5-step framework for objective probability assessment

040 GitHub stars

05Identifies mental shortcuts triggered by recent or emotionally charged events

06Systematically discounts biases related to recency, salience, and media coverage

Use Cases

01Making investment or project decisions by looking at industry-wide success rates instead of high-profile success stories

02Assessing security risks or travel safety by comparing historical statistics against news-driven anxiety

03Prioritizing technical debt and bug fixes based on actual frequency data rather than recent support volume

What are Skills?·How to Install

Install with 🐟 Skill.Fish

npx skillfish add lev-os/agents availability-heuristic

For use in Claude.ai and ChatGPT

Download Skill